**Early exit polling in the US midterms shows a bad night could be coming for Trump and the Republicans**

Early exit polls on Election Night show President Trump’s approval among voters at just 38%—the lowest midterm rating for a sitting president in nearly two decades, according to NBC, CBS, and CNN. Nearly half of voters say a major reason for their vote is to rebuke Trump, with cost of living, the economy, and frustration with the direction of the country topping the list of concerns.

ABC, CNN, Fox, CBS, and the Associated Press have projected that Democrats Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Mark Warner in Virginia have held their Senate seats. Ossoff’s win was called quickly and by a wide margin in a state Trump carried in 2024; neither is a pickup, so the Senate remains 53-47 for Republicans. Additional safe Democratic holds (including New Hampshire) have also been called. Early returns show Democrats leading in several Republican-held Senate races, including strong early numbers in Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, plus solid leads in their must-hold seats such as Michigan.

Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats (and roughly three in the House) to take control of both chambers. Pre-election betting markets gave them roughly a 93–96% chance of flipping the House and about a 74–77% chance in the Senate; those odds have held or edged higher as early results come in. Cook Political Report and other forecasters had projected possible Democratic House gains in the mid-20s.

The Senate fight is still open in the main battlegrounds: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and others that looked competitive (North Carolina, Nebraska, South Carolina). The final New York Times/Siena polls had Democrats ahead or competitive in most of them. Kalshi and similar markets had priced candidates such as Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) as clear favorites heading into the night.

Polls have closed across much of the East and Midwest, with early and mail ballots driving strong Democratic numbers so far. Election Day voting is still being counted and could narrow some margins. Alaska’s polls close last, around 1 a.m. Eastern. No chamber has been decided, and close races could take hours or longer. Early signs point to a difficult night for Republicans, but the final picture is still forming.

 [@DDGeopolitics](https://t.me/DDGeopolitics)