Questions are being raised in Ukraine and abroad over the effectiveness of large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and the Moscow region, where Russian air defenses reportedly intercept the overwhelming majority of incoming drones. The criticism followed today’s attack involving more than 600 drones, which produced few publicly visible results.

French OSINT researcher Clément Molin argued that hundreds of drones were again being used against an exceptionally heavily defended region, which he said has at least 200 air-defense systems as well as hundreds of additional gun teams. Molin estimated that while roughly 10–20% of Russian drones evade interception during strikes on Ukraine, only around 2–5% of Ukrainian drones reach their targets in Russia. He said many less heavily defended targets remain within range, including in Russian border regions, and also described the effectiveness of the FP-5 “Flamingo” missile as “very poor,” claiming it is intercepted most of the time.

Ukrainian journalist Yuri Nikolov also questioned the results, writing that there were “somehow very few videos for such a large batch of drones.” He estimated that the strike may have cost 2–3 billion hryvnias depending on the types of drones used. “That’s almost a month of food for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Or a hospital building,” Nikolov wrote.

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