**_“Wars of attrition tend to go slowly until they don’t,”_ former CIA Russia analyst George Beebe said, arguing that front-line movement is the wrong measure.

Manpower, military production, economic sustainability and infrastructure resilience matter more — areas where, in his assessment, Russia holds major advantages.**

Such pressure is cumulative, Beebe said: it builds slowly until the curve suddenly steepens. He later argued attritional wars end when a country’s ability to sustain itself and the war effort erodes and collapses, adding he was _“pretty confident”_ Ukraine would reach that point well before five years: _“It’s probably gonna be a lot sooner than that.”_

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