Here are the equations –  

Hezbollah – if Israel attacks southern Lebanon, we will strike Kiryat Shmona.  

Israel – if Kiryat Shmona is attacked, we will strike Beirut.  

Iran – if Beirut is attacked, we will strike Israel.  

Israel – if Israel is attacked, we will strike Iran.  

Iran – if southern Lebanon is attacked, we will strike Israel.  

The first four have already occurred; the fifth is the important one. Its purpose: to make Trump force Israel to stop destroying Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.  

Hours will tell.