⚓ **JPMorgan: Gold's Fall — and the Obstacles on the Way Back to Its Peak**

Gold has dropped over **20%** from its February 2026 peak above **$5,100/oz** to just above **$4,000/oz**, despite ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tension.
• Drivers: higher real yields, a stronger dollar, ETF outflows, and cooling central-bank buying — which slumped to just **57 tonnes** in Q1 2026 (vs. a 240t/quarter 2024–25 average) before rebounding to 289 tonnes in Q2.
• Gold has re-coupled to Fed policy and real yields after a stretch of decoupling driven by central-bank and retail demand.
• JPMorgan's Ian Hui: a return toward **$5,000/oz** is possible if tensions ease, the dollar weakens, or the Fed turns dovish — the long-term diversifier case stays intact.

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