📚 **Treasury's Q3 FY2026 TBAC Report: Primary Dealers See $2 Trillion Deficits Through 2028, No Change to Auction Sizes**

Treasury's August 2026 refunding presentation to the TBAC pegs privately-held net marketable borrowing at **$739B** for Q4 FY2026 and **$628B** for Q1 FY2027.
• Primary dealers' median deficit estimate is **$1.95T** for FY2026, rising to **$2.1T** by FY2028 — modestly below their April forecasts.
• Receipts are up 4% YoY to $4.15T through Q3, but outlays climbed 3% to $5.52T, keeping the deficit run-rate elevated.
• _All primary dealers expect no changes to nominal coupon, TIPS, or FRN issuance sizes_ at the August refunding.

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