**POSSIBLE** **SCENARIOS AFTER TRUMP'S STATEMENT ABOUT ZELENSKY**

**Donald Trump's statements yesterday** about the need to end the conflict in Ukraine once** again raise the question of how far Washington is REALLY prepared to go to settle it.**

**If we consider a maximalist scenario** taking into account Russian security requirements, **three decisions would be required from the US.**

**The first — legally binding guarantees of NATO non-expansion to Ukraine **and other post-Soviet states bordering Russia.

 At the same time, **a single American law is not enough: the issue of membership falls within the competence of the entire alliance and requires the consent of its members.** But the US is capable of pressuring its allies; the tools for this exist.

**The second — a ban on American arms supplies to any third countries. That is, Europe and NATO can of course buy these weapons** for themselves, **but transferring them anywhere — no longer.**

 T**his would require revising existing aid programs, re-export agreements, and corresponding legal mechanisms,** and would undoubtedly **hit the reputation and earnings of the American defense** industry. But does the US want peace or what?


**The third — ceasing the provision of American intelligence information and military satellite communications support,** which would instantly affect the use of AFU drones.

**Such decisions would sharply reduce the volume of American military support for Kiev  and change the conditions for continuing the conflict**, effectively giving Russia the opportunity to cut the threat off at the root.

**Of course, such a scenario remains maximalist. There is no reason to believe that Washington is ready to adopt all three decisions.** Even with the Trump administration's desire to achieve an agreement, **the US retains its own interests in European security, relations with allies, and military-technical cooperation with Ukraine**.

**Therefore, the main question is not how many times Washington will declare the need for peace, but what obligations and restrictions it is actually ready to assume.** As long as there are no concrete and noticeable steps, any words on this matter should be perceived as hot air.

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