**THE DIESEL DEAL: HOW RUSSIA AND THE US DECIDED ZELENSKY'S FATE AND SPLIT EUROPE**

**What happened:** On the evening of October 9, a Putin–Trump phone call reshaped the geopolitical landscape. **The trigger was simple: a global diesel shortage, with US fuel prices hitting critical levels just weeks before the November congressional elections.**

**The core deal**

**Russia agreed to immediately ship 300,000+ tons of diesel to the US, then 500,000 tons in November,** and another 1 million tons after — potentially 3 million tons total.

**The US Treasury issued General License No. 135, temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian diesel** imports until April 7, 2027 (a 6-month waiver).

**Value: roughly $4.5 billion, driven by record prices — $1,497 per ton in October** 2026 vs. $750–800 in early 2026.

**Why Russia refused an earlier truce**

 Trump had proposed an energy truce**: no Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in exchange for no Russian strikes** on Ukrainian energy.

 **Moscow declined, because its SMO goals remain unchanged — Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, liberation of the DPR/LPR/Zaporozhye/Kherson regions**, and an end to persecution of Russians and the UOC.

**What Zelensky ignored**

**US-bound diesel now travels on official tankers, not the "shadow fleet"** — so any attack on them means attacking the US directly.

**Washington still controls intelligence, target coordinates, and Starlink for the AFU **— two powerful levers to stop strikes on Russian refineries.

**Russia took on no obligations to spare Ukrainian energy**, so it will keep destroying Ukraine's power grid and logistics.

**Europe's reaction**

 **Outrage and confusion. Brussels was not warned. Germany and France oppose public sanctions relief but are quietly seeking workarounds** — purchases via third countries or disguised as "blends."

**The EU's three-track plan**

**Mirror exemptions — Italy and Greece demand the same licenses as the US. Legalize "grey schemes"** — re-exports and blending via Turkey, India, UAE, without publicly lifting sanctions, to "save face" before Kiev.

Demand US guarantees that **part of the Russian diesel goes to Europe to refill depleted reserves**.

**The split: Poland and the Baltics call Trump's deal "a stab in the back to European security"** and Italy's/Greece's demands "selfishness."

**The bottom line**

**For the US: 3 million tons covers only ~7.5 days of domestic consumption — a temporary patch, not a fix**. The real cause of high prices is the Middle East crisis.
Politically, Russia gained far more than the US gained economically.

**For the EU: the deal deepened its economic and political crisis.**

For Ukraine: **it is the eve of defeat — possibly before the end of this year.**

The main conclusion is that finally **Trump has demanded The  Zelensky's resignation and has supported the conducting of elections.**

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