**AI Infrastructure Debt Is Getting Tighter**

JPMorgan expects **$5.5T of AI spending through 2030**, including **$4.1T funded with debt**. Morgan Stanley estimates private credit will fund over half of the **$1.5T needed for data centers through 2028**.

Private credit investors can usually withdraw only **5% of their shares per quarter**. In early 2026, **Blue Owl, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals**. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield is above **5%**, while the 30-year is near **5.5%**.

AI revenue is still small relative to the buildout. **Microsoft's AI revenue run rate is $37B** and **AWS's is $15B**, versus about **$650B of hyperscaler spending in 2026**. The money is not gone, but cheap debt is. If AI revenue does not cover higher interest costs, lenders will fund fewer projects.

**** **[@venture](https://t.me/venture)