**Israel’s Election and Caretaker Rule**

**Netanyahu can remain prime minister after the 27 October election** without winning a new term or postponing the vote. Israel’s Basic Law keeps the outgoing government in place until a new one is formed.

Postponement is separate. It requires a law backed by **80 lawmakers** and special circumstances that prevent voting on time. War does not automatically move the date.

On 25 October, Polymarket priced **Gadi Eisenkot at 51%** and **Netanyahu at 29%**. The contract covers the next prime minister formally appointed and sworn in, not caretaker service. Polls put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats, or 62 in Channel 14. A majority is 61.

Eisenkot’s party leads in the **first 3 surveys**, but the largest party has no automatic right to form a government. The decisive test is a confidence vote, which can pass with abstentions and fewer than 61 votes in favor.

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