**Midterms Meet a Costly Market**

The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, **19 for 19**, with an average gain of about **15%**.

JPMorgan’s election map:

 Democratic sweep, 66% odds, -0.25% to +0.5%.

 Democratic House, GOP Senate, 26% odds, +0.5% to +1%.

 Republican sweep, 7% odds, +1% to +1.25%.

A blue wave could pressure **AI stocks** through data center regulation fears. A red wave could extend the Iran campaign and deficit spending.

The catch is valuation. The Shiller CAPE is **40.7**, above the old record of 33.8. History favors bulls, but no streak began from a market this expensive. **AI earnings** may matter more than tonight’s result.

**** **[@venture](https://t.me/venture)