최근 들어 주식보다 채권이 매력적일 수 있다는 주장의 대표적인 데이터
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~ We are witnessing a historic shift.
~ The annual spread between the S&P 500's earnings yield and the 10Y Note yield is down to -1.5 percentage points, its lowest since 2009.
~ Since 2022, this yield difference has fallen -440 basis points, its largest 5-year decline since the 1970s.
~ As a result, the S&P 500's equity risk premium is on track to post its 3rd consecutive negative annual reading, the longest streak since 2002.
~ This suggests that, on a yield basis, theoretically less risky 10Y Treasuries are now more attractive than the S&P 500.
~ In other words, investors are receiving a higher yield from Treasuries than from the S&P 500, despite the additional risk of owning stocks.
~ Historically, a negative equity risk premium has been associated with strong risk appetite and stretched equity valuations.
~ We expect an eventful Q4 ahead.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2109798155050987549