It must be acknowledged that this is a Yom Kippur moment for most pollsters.

Amit Segal

Amit Segal

@amitseg

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It must be acknowledged that this is a Yom Kippur moment for most pollsters.

There is simply no statistical way to explain how a six-seat lead for the opposition could be reversed in just four days.

This makes four years of polling look ridiculous. Those polls presented us with a picture of reality that, in hindsight, turned out to be completely inaccurate. And this applies not only to parliamentary seats, but also to public opinion regarding the war, a commission of inquiry, hostage deals, and more.

Every single pollster, without exception, failed to identify the surge in Arab voter support.

Already, we can identify two pollsters who consistently recognized Likud's strength over time: Momo Filber on Channel 14 and Tzuriel Sharon on Channel 15. They read the political landscape more accurately, and they deserve credit for that.

Tzuriel and his team at Direct Polls came closest to accurately predicting the size of the political blocs.

Later this morning, I will try to explain what happened here in terms of polling methodology and sampling techniques.
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