⚓ JPMorgan: Gold's Fall — and the Obstacles on the Way Back to Its Peak
Gold has dropped over 20% from its February 2026 peak above $5,100/oz to just above $4,000/oz, despite ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tension.
• Drivers: higher real yields, a stronger dollar, ETF outflows, and cooling central-bank buying — which slumped to just 57 tonnes in Q1 2026 (vs. a 240t/quarter 2024–25 average) before rebounding to 289 tonnes in Q2.
• Gold has re-coupled to Fed policy and real yields after a stretch of decoupling driven by central-bank and retail demand.
• JPMorgan's Ian Hui: a return toward $5,000/oz is possible if tensions ease, the dollar weakens, or the Fed turns dovish — the long-term diversifier case stays intact.
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