π Treasury's Q3 FY2026 TBAC Report: Primary Dealers See $2 Trillion Deficits Through 2028, No Change to Auction Sizes
Treasury's August 2026 refunding presentation to the TBAC pegs privately-held net marketable borrowing at $739B for Q4 FY2026 and $628B for Q1 FY2027.
β’ Primary dealers' median deficit estimate is $1.95T for FY2026, rising to $2.1T by FY2028 β modestly below their April forecasts.
β’ Receipts are up 4% YoY to $4.15T through Q3, but outlays climbed 3% to $5.52T, keeping the deficit run-rate elevated.
β’ All primary dealers expect no changes to nominal coupon, TIPS, or FRN issuance sizes at the August refunding.
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