Midterm Rally Pattern
US stocks tend to rally after Midterm elections. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned +17.2% on average in the following year, its strongest Presidential cycle return, finishing higher in 17 of 19 years.
That compares with +4.6% during midterm years, when it rose in 11 of 19 years, and +8.1% in Year 4, when it rose in 16 of 19 years.
In Q4 of midterm years, the index has returned +6.6% on average, the cycle’s strongest quarter. History suggests US equities will extend their rally after Midterm elections.
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Midterm Rally Pattern US stocks tend to rally after Midterm elections.
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