🧐🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦THE DIESEL DEAL: HOW RUSSIA AND THE US DECIDED ZELENSKY'S FATE AND SPLIT EUROPE 📆What happened:

🧐🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦THE DIESEL DEAL: HOW RUSSIA AND THE US DECIDED ZELENSKY'S FATE AND SPLIT EUROPE

📆What happened: On the evening of October 9, a Putin–Trump phone call reshaped the geopolitical landscape. The trigger was simple: a global diesel shortage, with US fuel prices hitting critical levels just weeks before the November congressional elections.

🔘The core deal

🔘Russia agreed to immediately ship 300,000+ tons of diesel to the US, then 500,000 tons in November, and another 1 million tons after — potentially 3 million tons total.

🔘The US Treasury issued General License No. 135, temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian diesel imports until April 7, 2027 (a 6-month waiver).

🔘Value: roughly $4.5 billion, driven by record prices — $1,497 per ton in October 2026 vs. $750–800 in early 2026.

🔘Why Russia refused an earlier truce

🔘Trump had proposed an energy truce: no Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in exchange for no Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy.

🔘Moscow declined, because its SMO goals remain unchanged — Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, liberation of the DPR/LPR/Zaporozhye/Kherson regions, and an end to persecution of Russians and the UOC.

🔘What Zelensky ignored

🔘US-bound diesel now travels on official tankers, not the "shadow fleet" — so any attack on them means attacking the US directly.

🔘Washington still controls intelligence, target coordinates, and Starlink for the AFU — two powerful levers to stop strikes on Russian refineries.

🔘Russia took on no obligations to spare Ukrainian energy, so it will keep destroying Ukraine's power grid and logistics.

🔘Europe's reaction

🔘Outrage and confusion. Brussels was not warned. Germany and France oppose public sanctions relief but are quietly seeking workarounds — purchases via third countries or disguised as "blends."

🔘The EU's three-track plan

🔘Mirror exemptions — Italy and Greece demand the same licenses as the US. Legalize "grey schemes" — re-exports and blending via Turkey, India, UAE, without publicly lifting sanctions, to "save face" before Kiev.

🔘Demand US guarantees that part of the Russian diesel goes to Europe to refill depleted reserves.

🔘The split: Poland and the Baltics call Trump's deal "a stab in the back to European security" and Italy's/Greece's demands "selfishness."

🔘The bottom line

🔘For the US: 3 million tons covers only ~7.5 days of domestic consumption — a temporary patch, not a fix. The real cause of high prices is the Middle East crisis.
Politically, Russia gained far more than the US gained economically.

🔘For the EU: the deal deepened its economic and political crisis.

🔘For Ukraine: it is the eve of defeat — possibly before the end of this year.

🔘The main conclusion is that finally Trump has demanded The Zelensky's resignation and has supported the conducting of elections.

#UW_Analytics

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