◾ The chokepoint is the engine Western states still have a lever over Russia's new strike programme,

◾ The chokepoint is the engine

Western states still have a lever over Russia's new strike programme, and it is not sanctions on the airframes. Fabian Hoffmann of the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies argues the effective target is the supply of Chinese jet engines feeding Geran and Banderol production, the Financial Times reports.

The alternative is a market shift. If Russia holds its current tempo and keeps access to foreign propulsion technology, Hoffmann says, it "could quickly become the world's largest producer of low-cost cruise missiles." Ruslan Pukhov adds that until Ukraine finds a reliable way to shoot the new Gerans down, the long-range air war may tilt back toward Moscow.

Kyiv's structural weakness is on the defensive side. "Ukraine does not produce its own anti-aircraft missiles, and that is not the same as a drone. You cannot make one in a garage."

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