Five observations as the counting of duplicate-envelope ballots slowly progresses (and their results have yet to be factored in):
1. Surplus-vote agreements and the Bader–Ofer method are tricky. In these elections, the right-wing bloc actually has a 3–2 advantage in the allocation of seats.
2. Shas is indeed on track to lose a seat to Likud.
3. Bennett and Lapid currently have one more seat than the Joint List. This matters if a unity government is formed, because Bennett would become opposition leader and receive security briefings, rather than Yousef Jabareen.
4. Since many people began declaring that they have a disability in order to vote wherever they want, the relative weight of soldiers' votes has declined. So anyone expecting dramatic shifts is likely to be disappointed.
5. The change bloc and Ra'am will probably have more seats than Netanyahu's bloc. However, they would still need the Joint List to abstain in order to form a minority government. This is the only feasible (and rather unlikely) scenario for establishing such a temporary government.