I have great respect for Shmuel Rosner’s analyses and recommend the Madad website. I suspect even he would agree that there is no chance in the world that, within a single week, the balance between the blocs shifted from a 57–48 advantage for the opposition to a 53–53 tie. There is simply no way to explain that.
I certainly don’t claim to know what the true picture is right now. I’m simply suggesting that we think logically and understand that there is no chance that a quarter of a million voters crossed from one bloc to the other within a week—this particular week, no less—in an election where the one thing all pollsters would agree on is that there is virtually no movement of voters between the blocs.