It is commonly assumed that the most important person in politics right now is Eisenkot, who is highly likely to be tasked with forming the next government. Others, out of habit, believe that Netanyahu still holds the power. Some are watching the enigmatic Lieberman, while the names of the two presidents, Herzog and Trump, have also been mentioned as potential deadlock-breakers. Many are closely following Abbas and Goldknopf as kingmakers, and that is considered a safe bet.
I, however, humbly believe that the key figure is currently sitting in Ra’anana, and his name is Naftali Bennett. Here is why:
The chairman of Beyachad, much like the chairman of Yashar, is one of the only pivotal players in virtually any possible government. Eisenkot will not want to enter a government with Netanyahu without him, and he cannot enter any government that includes the ultra-Orthodox and/or Arab parties without him.
But there is a fundamental difference between the two. Eisenkot is expected to serve as prime minister in a minority coalition or, at the very least, as an equal partner in a unity government. He has something significant to gain. Bennett, on the other hand, has a great deal to lose. He will absorb a substantial share of the criticism and electoral damage from breaking campaign promises, but on the rewards side, he will have to settle for a senior (very senior) ministerial position, without returning to the most important office in the country.
The Beyachad party finished the election with 12 seats. Broken down, that means seven representatives for Bennett and five for Lapid. Frankly, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which all twelve join any government as a single bloc.
The two leading scenarios are a minority government of forty-something Knesset members, dependent on the goodwill of United Torah Judaism, Ra’am, and the Joint List; or a national unity government with Netanyahu.
It is highly doubtful that Bennett would agree to sacrifice himself once again on the altar of breaking two core campaign promises: both failing to draft the ultra-Orthodox and agreeing to sit with Arab parties. Especially with another election potentially on the horizon, he would be starting from a significantly disadvantaged position: having lost the votes of military service members and right-wing voters, while Eisenkot would be running his campaign from the Prime Minister’s Office.
On the other hand, joining a unity government with Netanyahu is something Lapid would find extremely difficult to swallow. He has not sat in a government with Netanyahu for more than a decade—not during wartime, nor during the COVID pandemic. It is highly doubtful he would do so now, merely in exchange for the Interior or Economy Ministry, especially after October 7.
“The situation is a pita,” a senior party official summed up a week before the election, when it was already clear that neither side would reach 61 seats.
It was an accurate description.
Another election might offer an opportunity to turn that pita into a baguette.
Yashar’s campaign slogan was “This time, Eisenkot.”
Bennett will say: “And this time—me.”
That starting point will determine his room for maneuver in the coalition negotiations that will take place here, perhaps even after 2027 has begun.
It seems almost self-evident that he will recommend Eisenkot to form the government, because given the election results, he has no other practical option.
But to my friends among the political reporters at Channel 12 News, I would suggest this: station a camera crew in Ra’anana for the next two months.
We may end up needing the footage.