Smotrich intends to demand in the small cabinet meeting this morning to flip the equation that Iran tried to create between itself and Lebanon on its head, and to focus mainly on an intensified response in Lebanon. For every Iranian missile, dozens of buildings in Dahieh should be destroyed.
According to his equation, last night two or three hundred buildings should have fallen in Beirut. It’s much easier, more accessible, and more effective than a response in Iran, including taking advantage of an opportunity with long-term security gains for northern residents — such as a “Silver Plow” operation in which the IDF would destroy the contact villages in southern Lebanon, so that Hezbollah would beg the Iranians to stop.
Paradoxically, this could also lead the Iranians to become more flexible in negotiations with the Americans, after a month and a half of their obstinacy and American capitulation. In such a case, Trump would also appreciate it, and Israel would once again earn points with him for initiative and boldness that change reality. Trump always likes to take credit for others’ successes — and that’s not bad for Israel.
Smotrich suggests saving the munitions and efforts against Iran for the moment when we decide to target the energy infrastructure that would paralyze Iran and collapse its economy. In his view, it would be a waste to spend such capabilities on exchanging blows within standard “equations.” In cost-benefit terms, strikes in nearby Lebanon are far more efficient than strikes in distant Iran, unless it’s part of a comprehensive campaign that goes all the way without limitations.
An interesting thesis. Even more interesting will be to see whether Netanyahu adopts it — or if he has another trick up his sleeve.