Iran has lost the battle over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has lost the battle over the Strait of Hormuz. According to U.S. government data, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states are managing to move an average of approximately 15 million barrels of oil per day - 9 million by tankers passing through the Strait itself, and another 6 million through alternative routes and upgraded land-based infrastructure, primarily pipelines.

A significant portion of this oil is reportedly being moved discreetly, under the protection of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, and therefore does not appear in publicly available databases. But perhaps the strongest evidence that the strategy is working is the price of oil itself. Instead of skyrocketing, prices have remained roughly between $85 and $90 per barrel - nowhere near the warnings of $150 or more and predictions of an economic crisis on the scale of the Great Depression.

Together with other developments in the global oil market - particularly declining Chinese consumption and, to some extent, record oil production in Venezuela - the new reality is compensating for almost all of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that passed through Hormuz before the war.

What is holding Trump back from unleashing the full force of the U.S. military against Iran is no longer Hormuz. That battle, as has become increasingly clear over time, appears to have been decided. The real concern now is the possibility of indiscriminate Iranian attacks against the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

(Tamir Morag)