The Iran–U.

The Iran–U.S. Agreement: An Analysis of the Current Situation

It is no secret that this agreement is unfavorable for Israel. From Israel’s perspective, any agreement between Iran and the United States is less desirable than the current reality, in which the Iranian regime is under sanctions and economic pressure.

The most troubling aspects, in my view, are the economic revival the Iranian regime is now set to receive and the nuclear issue, where President Trump appears to have retreated from the firm positions he previously articulated.

The Lebanese dimension also remains unclear, as key details regarding the nature of the ceasefire are still missing.

The Financial Issue

The current Iranian regime remains just as committed - if not more so - to the destruction of Israel.

President Trump has effectively provided the regime with a new economic lifeline. Billions of dollars, whether through renewed oil exports or the release of frozen assets, are expected to flow into Tehran. That outcome now appears all but certain.

Moreover, once the 60-day period expires, the existing sanctions on Iran could come to an end, as both the United States and Europe have expressed a willingness to lift them.

Without a doubt, these funds will be used for Iranian rearmament. The agreement contains no meaningful restrictions or enforceable mechanisms to prevent that. Iran’s missile and drone programs are now likely to accelerate significantly.

The regime will also almost certainly channel additional resources to its regional proxies - Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Shiite militias in Iraq, and Palestinian terrorist organizations. That outcome is unavoidable.

Their common objective remains the same: to attack Israel.

The Nuclear Issue

Despite repeated promises, President Trump told The New York Times that Iran would be permitted to enrich uranium at a low level.

It will not remain at a low level. That runs contrary to the very nature of the Iranian regime. Its ambition to obtain nuclear weapons will only intensify.

The ability to enforce enrichment limits is practically nonexistent. That burden will not fall on President Trump but rather on Israel and future American presidents, who may be reluctant to consider military action against Iran after witnessing Trump’s difficulty in bringing the conflict to an end.

This is a strategic problem.

The Lebanese Issue

Iran has succeeded in linking the Lebanese file to the signing of the agreement, and President Trump agreed to that framework.

As a result, Iran now presents itself as Lebanon’s savior, while the Lebanese president and prime minister failed to secure a ceasefire through direct negotiations with Israel.

This undermines the prospects for future peace negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.

Israel must insist on maintaining its presence in Lebanon and continue dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Beyond Israel’s own security, what is at stake is also the possibility of peace with Lebanon and the future character and strength of Hezbollah within the country.

If Iran succeeds in using this agreement to force an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, the resulting damage will be extremely difficult to reverse.

Iran’s Regional Standing

The agreement undoubtedly benefits Iran, despite its military setbacks.

It restores Iran’s status as a regional power - one before which even the United States ultimately chose to compromise, despite its overwhelming superiority.

That perception will resonate throughout the Middle East. Regional governments and their citizens will ask whether it is wise to confront Iran when it appears capable of prevailing over President Trump at the negotiating table and regaining the means to rebuild itself as a regional sponsor of terrorism.

Many will seek closer ties with Tehran.

Iran’s propaganda machine will work around the clock to amplify this achievement and elevate its newly restored regional status.

The process has already begun. The larger wave is still ahead.

Conclusion