WILL THE IRANIAN REGIME FALL? Many people have asked whether I believe a joint U.

WILL THE IRANIAN REGIME FALL?

Many people have asked whether I believe a joint U.S.-Israeli military strike will topple the Iranian regime in the coming months.

My answer has two parts:

1. From a military standpoint: No.
2. From a biblical standpoint: No.

Here is why.

THE MILITARY PERSPECTIVE

Under current conditions, and with the capabilities available, I do not believe overthrowing the Iranian regime through external military force is an achievable objective.

The forces, time, and resources that the United States and Israel can commit to such a campaign are limited. Meanwhile, the Gulf states’ many vulnerabilities, combined with inadequate preparations to defend them, significantly restrict military freedom of action.

Iran’s defensive structure has also undergone a fundamental shift. Before Operation “Roaring Lion,” there may still have been a window of opportunity to destabilize the regime’s centers of power. Iran’s transition to the “Mosaic Defense” model has dramatically narrowed that window.

This model decentralizes command, control, and defense across Iran’s 31 provinces, allowing each province to continue functioning even if the leadership and command centers in Tehran suffer severe damage.

Simply put, Iran has prepared for a scenario in which even the fall of its capital would not necessarily bring down the entire system. Instead of confronting a single command center in Tehran, we now face 31 centers capable of operating independently.

Even if the United States and Israel somehow managed to seize Tehran, that would not guarantee the collapse of the remaining provinces or the fall of the regime. Without an organized internal force capable of taking power, an external military victory would not automatically translate into regime change.

If we are indeed heading toward a third round of conflict with Iran, I sincerely hope Israeli and American military leaders will define limited, clear, and achievable objectives, even if political leaders continue to speak of overthrowing the regime.

Those objectives could include a focused operation against the nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain, an attempt to seize the enriched uranium stockpile, and significant strikes against strategic infrastructure and the regime’s centers of power.

The aim would be to secure a tangible achievement on the nuclear issue, increase pressure on Tehran, and create conditions for negotiations that could deliver concrete diplomatic gains.

The distinction between weakening the regime and overthrowing it is critical. One is a military mission with defined limits and measurable conditions for success. The other, under current conditions, risks becoming an open-ended campaign with no clear path to victory.

Making regime change the military objective without the internal forces, regional preparations, and capabilities needed to accomplish it would be a grave strategic mistake. It could drag both countries into a prolonged, costly war with no clear end in sight.

THE BIBLICAL PERSPECTIVE

Ezekiel 38:5 explicitly names Persia as part of the coalition that will come against Israel.

My understanding of this prophecy is that an anti-Israel regime will remain in place in Iran, weakened but still hostile, and willing to join a broader coalition rather than attack Israel alone.

The passage identifies Persia’s participation; it does not explicitly identify the government that will be in power or describe its military strength. Those details reflect my interpretation of how the prophetic picture may unfold.

For these reasons, I do not expect the coming months to bring the outcome many are anticipating.

The United States and Israel can weaken the Iranian regime, degrade its capabilities, and force it to make difficult choices. That does not mean they can guarantee its overthrow.

We must distinguish between what military force can accomplish, what political leaders promise, and what Scripture actually says.