🌍 PIMCO: Credit Market Lens — A Higher Bar for Earnings Season
PIMCO's latest Credit Market Lens notes that one-year earnings growth forecasts for U.S. dollar investment-grade issuers have roughly quadrupled since late January, while consensus EBITDA growth forecasts for high-yield borrowers rose from under 4% to more than 14% over the same period. AI hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) made up about a third of 2025 capital spending and are projected to reach 54% of the total by 2027.
Why it matters: Elevated earnings expectations raise the bar for second-quarter reporting, making hyperscaler capex guidance a key signal for whether current credit spreads remain justified.
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