🌍 PIMCO: Old-Fashioned Bond Math Returns for a New-Fashioned Fed
PIMCO argues that incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh signals a shift toward less forward guidance and a lighter balance sheet, raising volatility and dispersion that active managers can exploit.
• With the 10-year Treasury yielding around 4.55%, PIMCO sees stronger five-year return potential than the near-zero era of 2020.
• A recession could generate 10%+ one-year Treasury returns, the firm notes, making today's higher starting yields a genuine tailwind for bond investors.
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