📈 Staying Risk-On in a More Fragile World
BlackRock Investment Institute's July 20 note says renewed Middle East tensions have raised geopolitical risk, but oil futures point to a temporary disruption rather than a prolonged supply shock — BII estimates the conflict will shave about 0.4% off 2026 global GDP and add roughly 0.8 percentage points to global inflation. The firm stays "risk-on but with a higher bar," preferring US equities over long-term government bonds, as consensus 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth expectations have risen to 25% from 18% three months ago. It calls last week's semiconductor selloff (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -11%) overstated given resilient AI infrastructure demand.
🔗 Read more