🎓 Vanguard's Mid-Year Economic Outlook: When AI Meets Oil

🎓 Vanguard's Mid-Year Economic Outlook: When AI Meets Oil
Vanguard economists outline how two opposing forces — AI-driven investment and productivity gains, and an oil-price shock from the Middle East conflict — are reshaping the 2026 global outlook. They forecast US growth of 2.3% with rates likely staying higher for longer, UK growth raised to 1.1% from 0.6% with a weaker labour market tempering further Bank of England hikes, euro area growth cut to 0.8% from 1.2%, and China growth of 4.7% supported by exports and AI investment. The piece stresses that AI is lifting growth while oil-driven inflation is a drag, widening the performance gap between regions and reinforcing the case for diversification.
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