๐Ÿ’พ ๊ณจ๋“œ๋งŒ์‚ญ์Šค: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, 2027๋…„ HBM ๋งค์ถœ +321% YoY ์ „๋ง * Goldman Sachs ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธ (2026/10/08) - 27๋…„ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž HBM ๋งค์ถœ 810์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(์•ฝ

์ง€์—˜๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜_ ๋…๋ฆฝ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜

์ง€์—˜๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜_ ๋…๋ฆฝ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜

@valjuman

๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ ์ฝ˜ํ…์ธ  ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ์—… ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธ/ํƒ๋ฐฉ ๋…ธํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ๋…๋ฆฝ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์œ ํŠœ๋ธŒ ์ฃผ์†Œ : youtube.com/@gorillatv2022 ํ™ˆํŽ˜์ด์ง€ ์ฃผ์†Œ : http://glstory.co.kr/?page_id=66 ํ˜‘์—… ๋ฌธ์˜ : research@glstory.co.kr ๋ณธ ์ฑ„๋„์€ ํˆฌ์ž๊ถŒ์œ  ๋ชฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์ž‘๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉฐ, ํˆฌ์ž์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์€ ํˆฌ์ž์ž์˜ ์ฑ…์ž„๊ณผ ํŒ๋‹จ ํ•˜์— ๊ฒฐ์ •๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. Disclaimer : ๋ณธ ์ฑ„๋„/์œ ํŠœ๋ธŒ์—์„œ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ข…๋ชฉ์€ ๋ณด์œ  ์ค‘์ผ

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๐Ÿ’พ ๊ณจ๋“œ๋งŒ์‚ญ์Šค: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, 2027๋…„ HBM ๋งค์ถœ +321% YoY ์ „๋ง

* Goldman Sachs ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธ (2026/10/08)

- 27๋…„ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž HBM ๋งค์ถœ 810์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(์•ฝ 108.5์กฐ์›) ์ „๋ง, +321% YoY
- ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ์œผ๋กœ HBM ASP๋Š” Gb๋‹น 4๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ดˆ๊ณผ ์ „๋ง, +159% YoY

- ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž DRAM ๋งค์ถœ ๋‚ด HBM ๋น„์ค‘์€ 26๋…„ 8% โ†’ 27๋…„ 20% ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ „๋ง
- ์ฐจ์„ธ๋Œ€ HBM4์šฉ 4nm ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋‹ค์ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ด ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋„ ๊ฒฌ์ธ

โ†’ HBM ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ & ASP๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ•์กฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
โ†’ ํŠนํžˆ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ํ„ดํ‚ค ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜์ฒด์ธ์„ ๋ณด์œ ํ•œ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋‹ต๊ฒŒ, HBM4์ด ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ์‹ค์ ์—๋„ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๋ฅผ ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ „๋ง์ด ์ธ์ƒ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

โ†’ ์˜›๋ง์— ๊ณณ๊ฐ„์—์„œ ์ธ์‹ฌ ๋‚œ๋‹ค๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ASP๊ฐ€ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ +160% ์„ฑ์žฅ์ธ๋ฐ, ASML์ด ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ +10% ์ธ์ƒํ•ด๋„ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ์˜ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋ฏธ๋ฏธํ•  ๋“ฏํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
โ†’ ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด, ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ โ†’ ์†Œ๋ถ€์žฅ ๋‚™์ˆ˜ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉํ™”๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๐Ÿ”— Goldman Sachs ๐Ÿ” ์ง€์—˜๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜
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