📈 Midterms Meet a Costly Market
The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, 19 for 19, with an average gain of about 15%.
JPMorgan’s election map:
🖱️ Democratic sweep, 66% odds, -0.25% to +0.5%.
🖱️ Democratic House, GOP Senate, 26% odds, +0.5% to +1%.
🖱️ Republican sweep, 7% odds, +1% to +1.25%.
A blue wave could pressure AI stocks through data center regulation fears. A red wave could extend the Iran campaign and deficit spending.
The catch is valuation. The Shiller CAPE is 40.7, above the old record of 33.8. History favors bulls, but no streak began from a market this expensive. AI earnings may matter more than tonight’s result.
✔️ @venture
📈 Midterms Meet a Costly Market The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm electi
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